Google Employees Bet on Google Plans
Google has created a predictive market system for its employees to bet on Google’s future plans.
Google allows its engineers to spend one day a week on a project of their choice and this has resulted in an interesting predictive market system.
Google’s predictive market system offers its employees a platform to bet on the likelihood of possible events. Employees bet on different things including how the company will perform in the future, product introduction dates and new office openings.
Google consulted Hal R. Varian, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, to develop this system. Professor Varian said, “I was a little surprised. I expected this to be accurate because there’s a lot of literature and experience with these systems. But this has been even better than I expected”.
Patri Friedman, Google Employee, says in his blog “In our system, if an event has a price of ten cents, that means it should be 10% likely. This is because each outcome is worth 1 Gooble (play money dollar) if it comes true, but 0 otherwise. So if an outcome has a 10% chance of happening, its price should be ten cents”.
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